Caught Between Extremes: Understanding Human‐Water Interactions During Drought‐To‐Flood Events in the Horn of Africa

Disaster risks are the results of complex spatiotemporal interactions between risk components, impacts and societal response. The complexities these increase when multi-risk events occur in vulnerable contexts characterized by ethnic conflicts, unstable governments, high levels poverty, resulting that larger than anticipated. Yet, only few studies explore human-environment interactions, as most hazard-focused, consider a single-type interaction, rarely account for dynamics components. Here, we developed step-wise, bottom-up approach, which range qualitative semi-quantitative methods was used iteratively to reconstruct feedback loops components consecutive drought-to-flood events, their variations. Within this conceptualize disaster set multiple (societal physical) interacting evolving across space time. approach applied 2017–2018 humanitarian crises Kenya Ethiopia, where extensive flooding followed severe drought lasting 18–24 months. were also accompanied government elections, crop pest outbreaks conflicts. Results show (a) highly Kenyan Ethiopian further aggravated flood impacts; (b) heavy rainfall after led both an decrease dependent on topographic socio-economic conditions; (c) response one hazard may influence opposite hazards. A better understanding human-water characterize can support development effective monitoring systems strategies.